Tải bản đầy đủ

Economic analysis and forecast of china (2015)

Research Series on the Chinese Dream
and China’s Development Path

Yang Li
Ping Li
Xuesong Li
Ping Zhang Editors

Analysis and
Forecast of
China (2015)

Research Series on the Chinese Dream
and China’s Development Path
Project Director
Xie Shouguang, President, Social Sciences Academic Press
Series editors
Li Yang, Vice president, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing, China

Li Peilin, Vice president, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing, China
Academic Advisors
Cai Fang, Gao Peiyong, Li Lin, Li Qiang, Ma Huaide, Pan Jiahua, Pei Changhong,
Qi Ye, Wang Lei, Wang Ming, Zhang Yuyan, Zheng Yongnian, Zhou Hong

Drawing on a large body of empirical studies done over the last two decades, the
Research Series on the Chinese Dream and China’s Development Path seeks to
provide its readers with in-depth analyses of the past and present, and forecasts for
the future course of China’s development. Thanks to the adoption of Socialism with
Chinese characteristics, and the implementation of comprehensive reform and
opening, China has made tremendous achievements in areas such as political
reform, economic development, and social construction, and is making great strides
towards the realization of the Chinese dream of national rejuvenation. In addition to
presenting a detailed account of many of these achievements, the authors also
discuss what lessons other countries can learn from China’s experience. This series
will be an invaluable companion to every researcher who is trying to gain a deeper
understanding of the development model, path and experience unique to China.

More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/13571


Yang Li Ping Li Xuesong Li
Ping Zhang


Economic Analysis
and Forecast of China (2015)


Yang Li

Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
Dongcheng District, Beijing

Xuesong Li
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
Dongcheng District, Beijing

Ping Li
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
Dongcheng District, Beijing

Ping Zhang
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
Dongcheng District, Beijing

Translated by Jiang Mengying, and published with financial support of the Innovation
Program of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

ISSN 2363-6866
ISSN 2363-6874 (electronic)
Research Series on the Chinese Dream and China’s Development Path
ISBN 978-981-10-5653-6
ISBN 978-981-10-5654-3 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-981-10-5654-3
Jointly published with Social Sciences Academic Press
Library of Congress Control Number: 2017946044
© Social Sciences Academic Press and Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2017
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publishers, whether the whole or part
of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations,
recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission
or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar
methodology now known or hereafter developed.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this
publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from
the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
The publishers, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this
book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publishers nor the
authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or
for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publishers remains neutral with regard to
jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Printed on acid-free paper
This Springer imprint is published by Springer Nature
The registered company is Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.
The registered company address is: 152 Beach Road, #21-01/04 Gateway East, Singapore 189721, Singapore


Series Preface

Since China’s reform and opening began in 1978, the country has come a long way
on the path of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics, under the leadership of the
Communist Party of China. Over thirty years of reform, efforts and sustained
spectacular economic growth have turned China into the world’s second largest
economy, and brought many profound changes in the Chinese society. These historically significant developments have been garnering increasing attention from
scholars, governments, and the general public alike around the world since the
1990s, when the newest wave of China studies began to gather steam. Some of the
hottest topics have included the so-called “China miracle”, “Chinese phenomenon”,
“Chinese experience”, “Chinese path”, and the “Chinese model”. Homegrown
researchers have soon followed suit. Already hugely productive, this vibrant field is
putting out a large number of books each year, with Social Sciences Academic
Press alone having published hundreds of titles on a wide range of subjects.
Because most of these books have been written and published in Chinese,
readership has been limited outside China—even among many who study China—
for whom English is still the lingua franca. This language barrier has been an
impediment to efforts by academia, business communities, and policy-makers in
other countries to form a thorough understanding of contemporary China, of what is
distinct about China’s past and present may mean not only for her future but also
for the future of the world. The need to remove such an impediment is both real and
urgent, and the Research Series on the Chinese Dream and China’s Development
Path is my answer to the call.
This series features some of the most notable achievements from the last 20
years by scholars in China in a variety of research topics related to reform and
opening. They include both theoretical explorations and empirical studies, and
cover economy, society, politics, law, culture, and ecology, the six areas in which
reform and opening policies have had the deepest impact and farthest-reaching
consequences for the country. Authors for the series have also tried to articulate
their visions of the “Chinese Dream” and how the country can realize it in these
fields and beyond.



Series Preface

All of the editors and authors for the Research Series on the Chinese Dream and
China’s Development Path are both longtime students of reform and opening and
recognized authorities in their respective academic fields. Their credentials and
expertise lend credibility to these books, each of which having been subject to a
rigorous peer-review process for inclusion in the series. As part of the Reform and
Development Program under the State Administration of Press, Publication, Radio,
Film and Television of the People’s Republic of China, the series is published by
Springer, a Germany-based academic publisher of international repute, and distributed overseas. I am confident that it will help fill a lacuna in studies of China in
the era of reform and opening.
Xie Shouguang



New Normal, New Leap
During recent years, in discussing foreign and domestic economic development
patterns since the global financial crisis, more and more people are inclined to
describe it as the “new normal.” The meaning is similar to such phrases as “new
stage,” “new era,” “new order,” and “medium- and high-speed development stage”
for economic development. The term was first used by President Xi Jinping at the
beginning of 2014 and later referred to in many formal occasions. “New normal” is
becoming a standard concept to summarize the current and near-future domestic
economic situation in China.
The “new normal” is a strategic concept of historical significance.
The word “new” divides global development since the middle and late 1980s
into two periods with systematic differences. Externally speaking, these two periods
are characterized by different economic growth rates which resulted in different
macro-economic variables, such as employment, price of commodities, interest rate,
exchange rate, balance of payments, financial revenue, expenditure, money supply,
and demand. Internally speaking, the solid foundation supporting the long-term
economic development is also different, such as scientific and technical innovation,
its industrialization level, population structure, factor supply efficiency, relationship
between saving and investment, and the real interest rate level when saving and
investment are at equilibrium. Therefore, new normal reveals that in analyzing the
present and planning for the future, we should first and foremost spend time
reviewing the past to make detailed analysis of the “old normal”, in order to gain a
clear perception about where we have started several decades ago, why we have
come to where we are, and how to avoid following the old track.




The judgment of “normal” indicates the main themes of domestic and foreign
economic development at present and in the future. It reminds us that no matter how
much we would like to linger on the “old normal,” there is no turning back if we
take the large probability into consideration. Therefore, to face the future, we must
make a comprehensive adjustment of our ideal, attitude, strategy, and policy to
rapidly adapt ourselves to the new normal and learn to grasp the principle of
production and living under the new normal.

Before the new normal, the world has undergone an old normal stage called “great
stability” by the international economic circle (an unforgettable prosperous period
seldom seen in history). During the two decades from the mid-1980s to the global
financial crisis in the twenty-first century, several financial crises of different
intensities erupted (1980s in Latin America, 1997 in Asia, 1998 in Russia, and 2001
in America), and the decline of the real estate market at the end of 1990s and the IT
bubble burst at the beginning of the twenty-first century occurred in America.
However, overall, that period has witnessed a “happy time” rarely seen in the
development of the global economy. The global economic development of the
stable period is basically characterized by sustainable rapid economic growth, low
inflation rate and low employment rate as well as infrequent economic fluctuation.
“Great stability” is an integrated outcome from global scientific and technological
progress, institutional reform and ongoing globalization. The year 2007 was the
turning point that the “great stability” was transformed into a great crisis. The
process from the phases of the “great stability” to the great crisis and to the new
normal was mainly characterized by long-term structural adjustments. This was
actually a process in which various conflicts were produced, accumulated, escalated, expanded, and broke out under the veneer of the prosperity of “great stability.” We think, two factors are critical in such a highly complicated historical
transformation resulting from various factors: firstly, was the aggravation of the
distorted economic development pattern and structure commonly seen in the world
today. However, immersed in the comfort brought about by the great stability, most
developed countries, in particular, showed a benign neglect to the crisis and were
unwilling to make adjustments; secondly, the unreasonable international economic
order formed after the global labor reorganization has led to increasingly severe
global economic imbalance. Following the ending of the old normal which was
mainly characterized by great stability is now the “new normal” for the global
economy to make in-depth adjustments and reorganization. There is no exception
both for China and the rest of the world.




The global financial and economic crisis triggered by America’s subprime crisis in
2007 has terminated the 20-year-long “great stability” period. If we regard the crisis
as “off the normal economic operation track,” then there are two ways to recover
from the crisis: one is to get back on track and the other, blaze a new trail. The
former is the outlet for many crises; it is the unending alteration from off the track to
back on the track that gives rise to the economic operation cycle. Blazing a new trail
is otherwise. It leads the economic operation off the old track, to break the cycle and
explore a new direction, from which the historical course for human development is
heading toward a qualitative transformation. The fact that the seven-year-long
crisis, (after all the hard struggling and in-depth adjustments), remains largely
unchanged, tells us that like the crises in 1930s and 1970s, this crisis again heralds a
profound change in the global economic development track. To cope with this
change, a dependence on the “standard” (even “hyper-normal”) stimulus policy will
not work, nor will our efforts to remedy the systems or institutions jeopardized from
the crisis. This means, we must explore again the tangible economic foundation for
global growth and restructure its corresponding global governance mechanism.
Obviously, the historical mission we are facing now is obviously different from the
recession and recovery stage in the general crisis cycle. We define the recovery
process that starts from such a crisis and is mainly characterized by the exploration
of a new path for global economic development as the new normal of the global
The new normal global economy has five characteristics: first, the global economic growth fluctuates at a low level; second, each country is stuck in the dilemma
between “deleverage” and “balance sheet remediation”; third, trade protectionism is
escalating; fourth, the country’s policy cycle is nonsynchronous; and fifth, a vacuum appears in global governance. Factors resulting in the global new normal come
from the long-term stagnation of real economy which is mainly caused by sluggish
technological advance, exacerbation of population structure, decline of real interest
rates to a negative value, and the fading effects of the balance sheet. This means,
even if we eliminate the direct factors causing the crisis, developed economies still
face many structural challenges in their future growth. Therefore, it is likely for
them to lapse into the new normal characterized by long-term stagnation.
Theoretically and practically speaking, in coping with long-term stagnation, we
shall not depend on the rarely effective demand management policy represented by
currency regulation and control. Instead, we should resort to the fiscal policy
directly influencing total spending levels and its structure. Facing such a situation,
economists unanimously agree that the only way to walk out of the long-term
stagnation is to advance all-around reform intrepidly. The priority of the reform
should be given to the supply end. We should encourage innovation and
entrepreneurship, promote educational development, increase human capital,
enhance the flexibility of labor markets, and decrease taxes for enterprises and



Since 2009, China’s economy has entered the new normal stage, which is mainly
characterized by structural slowdown. This followed the declining trend of the
economic growth rate, a comprehensive manifestation of the national economy. The
new changes come in a series of corresponding macro-economic indexes, such as
saving, investment, commodity price, employment, financial revenue and expenditure (including deficit), international balance of payments, RMB exchange rate,
money supply, interest rate.
Factors leading to the structural slowdown were produced at the substantial level
deciding economic development, which mainly included a decline in resource
allocation efficiency and factor supply efficiency, stagnation in innovation, and an
enhancement of the restriction in resources and environment.
The new normal brings new challenges. It not only exposes deep-seated problems covered-up for the long term in the national economy, but also incurs a series
of new problems. In summary, these problems are mainly manifested in five
aspects: first, economic development lapsed into a vicious cycle “investmentgrowth-surplus.” Our growth is highly dependent on investment while investment is
the primary reason for excess production capacity. The key to stable economic
growth under the new normal is to improve investment mechanisms through
reform, dealing with the relationship between what to invest, how to invest, and
who to invest in. The second principle is the soaring of leverage ratio. The soaring
of leverage ratio is a financial crisis of comprehensive and systematic significance.
The liquidity of China’s local debt falls short of the ability to pay. In coping with
the debt problem, the short-term objective is to stop the debt situation from
aggravating, and the long-term aim is to establish a rational and sustainable local
government financing mechanism. The third principle is the transformation of
urbanization. To advance urbanization under the new normal, we must change our
view that only urban residents can plan urbanization, reverse the “development
zone” trend, avoid “losing the market,” improve land utilization efficiency, and
emphasize the integration between important supply factors to long-term sustainable development. This would include such factors as industry clustering, accumulation of human capital and knowledge spillover and make city and countryside
integration the ultimate goal. Fourth, the reversal of the real estate market needs to
be a priority. It is not the policy that has triggered this real estate market decline but
the profound change in the internal supply-demand pattern of the urban housing
market. The short-term policy should focus on reforming the countless real estate
regulations, discarding those improper and self-contradictory ones and purifying the
market. The long-term policy should be targeted at speeding up the “top-level
design” of the real estate market, especially solving problems in the “Home
Ownership Scheme,” such as the rent–sell ratio, the relationship between housing
and land and between real estate market and urbanization. In addition, the main
developer of the real estate market, the government’s status, and role in the real
estate market needs to be reanalyzed, as does the real estate financial system. The




fiscal taxation policy which supports and regulates the development of real estate
market needs better inspection. The fifth principle to stable economic growth is to
assess why financial chaos keeps cropping up. It is indeed a chaotic phenomenon
that the amount of money increases concurrently with the interest rate and price
rise. To avert the financial chaos, we must reform the system and institution, first by
reforming the current foreign exchange reserve management system, in order to
protect our monetary policy from being kidnapped by foreign exchange reserves.
Second, we must reform the model of separated supervision by multi-sectors to
eliminate the root of regulatory arbitrage and to cover more of the emerging
comprehensive financial business. Lastly, it is imperative that we abandon the
complicated and outdated “policy restriction” to purify the market.

The new normal is pregnant with revolutionary transformation. Globally speaking,
the new normal means the restructuring of the supply chain, the adjustment of the
economic structure, the reshaping of the governance system, and the reshuffling
of the relationship between great powers. Domestically speaking, the new normal
means the “rebirth” of China’s economy. Through this stage, China’s economy will
fundamentally shake off the investment-driven and export-driven growth mode and
tread on a path characterized by the pursuit of quality, efficiency, and sustainable
development. This will avoid the middle-income trap and realize the rejuvenation of
The new normal has ushered in development opportunities for us and endowed
the period of strategic opportunity with a new shade of meaning.
The new normal helps to “squeeze out the moisture.” The moisture in our
economy can be found mainly in the investment-driven economic growth mode. If
investment cannot be channeled into productivity, the increase rate correspondent to
this part of investment is moisture; if it is channeled into productivity, there appears
to be an excess of production capacity and overstocking of product, the corresponding increase rate is also moisture. Undoubtedly, since the decline of the
economic growth under the new normal is mainly attributed to the decrease of the
investment growth, we will have favorable conditions to compress and squeeze out
the moisture.
The new normal is beneficial to the implementation of the innovation-driven
strategy. Since we can no longer depend on traditional factors such as investment
and export, China’s economy is forced into the new innovation-driven track, a
significant transformation we have been seeking during all these years.
The new normal is beneficial to unravel the relationship between government
and the market. It will make the GDP assessment mechanism decline in importance.
As a result, the investment promotion and investment impulsion can be effectively
curbed. With a potential solution for the government’s long-term “offside” and
“absence” problem, we can better exert the government’s influence. The new



normal requires us to strengthen the main status of the enterprise and the decisive
role of the market in resource allocation and to realize benefit and efficiency
maximization of resources based on market rules, market price, and market
The new normal is beneficial to the development of a sustainable economy. Only
under a lax macro-environment can we decrease resource waste and environmental
pollution and truly promote the ecological construction of civilization.
The new normal is beneficial to the realization of social equality and justice. For
a very long time in the past, an overemphasis on speed led to an excessive
dependence on investment, which has made the capital owner a long-term dominant
role in the economy. Consequently, the profits took up too much a proportion in
national income and correspondingly, the labor income took up less a proportion. If
such an unequal distribution pattern continues, it will aggravate polarization,
rigidifying social classes and benefits pattern.
To sum up, the new normal has brought us development opportunities and while
keeping abreast of the times, endowed China’s period of strategic opportunity with
a new shade of meaning under new conditions. We must proceed from the stage
characteristic of economic development, concentrate on the stratagem, adjust our
overall ideal, attitude, strategy and policy, adapt ourselves rapidly to the new
normal, and improve the system and the structure of the rule of law of socialist
market economy.
Globally, we have entered a “reform competition period”, whoever has the most
profound insight into the reform’s urgency, complexity, and diversity, and has the
most complete strategy, the strongest determination and the most obvious effect will
gain a better niche in the future global competition. The decision to intensify overall
reform and to govern the country by laws passed in the 3rd and 4th Plenary Session
of the 18th Central Committee of CPC is a well-considered guiding principle to
guide Chinese people to implement a new round of reform and realize China’s
Beijing, China

Ping Li


Academic Committee of “Economic Analysis
and Forecast of China”

Chairman: Li Yang
Vice-chairman: Liu Shucheng, Lv Zheng
Members: Wang Guogang, Tian Xueyuan, Zhu Ling, Zhang Ping, Zhang Chewei,
Zhang Zhuoyuan, Zhang Xiaoshan, Zhang Xiaojing, Li Ping, Li Zhou, Li Xuesong,
Yang Shengming, Wang Tongsan, Zhou Shulian, Jin Bei, Yin Jianfeng, Gao
peiyong, Huang Qunhui, Cai Fang, Pei Changhong, Pan Jiahua, Wei houkuai

Editorial Board of “Blue Book of China’s Economy”
Chief Editor: Li Yang
Vice-Chief Editors: Li Ping, Li Xuesong, Zhang Ping
Contributors: Li Yang, Li Xuesong, Zhang Tao, Li Jun, Fan Mingtai, Lou Feng,
Wang Wenbo, Peng Zhan, Liu Shucheng, Zhao Kun, Wang Baolin, Fu Linghui, Li
Zhou, Dang Guoying, Yuan Lei, Jin Bei, Xie Sanming, Zhang Liqun, Li Poxi,
Zheng Chaoyu, Chen Lei, Sui Zhanlin, Zhang Tongbin, Cai Jin, Wu Wei, Yan
Xiandong, Ye Huan, Jin Bosong, Liu Jianyin, Chen Kexin, Cai Fang, Lu Yang, Fu
Guangjun, Zhu Pingfang, Chen Shoudong, Liu Yang, Zhang Guanhua, Xiong Junli,
Liu Mengjun, Peng Suling, Chen Xinhui, Chenli Ailun, Wu Chengye, Chen Yanwu
Editorial Team
Director: Li Jinhua
Vice Director: Peng Zhan
Members: Han Shengjun, Zhang Jie, Chen Xingxing, Wang Xifeng



Part I

Economic Analysis and Forecast of China—2014 Autumn
Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
“Economic Analysis and Forecast of China” Research Group

Part II






General Report

Economic Growth and Industry Development

Analysis and Policy Suggestions for the Economic Trends
at Present and in the Middle and Long Term . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Liu Shucheng


Analysis of the Macroeconomic Situation in 2014
and Prospects in 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Fu Linghui


Analysis of the “Issues of Agriculture, Farmer
and Rural Area” Situation in 2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Li Zhou and Dang Guoying


Analysis and Policy Suggestion of the Current Industrial
Economic Situation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Yuan Lei and Jin Bei


Predication of the Industrial Growth Rate in 2014
and Analysis and Report on the Industrial Prospect
Index and the Early Warning Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Xie Sanming


Consequences of the Labor Market Which Surpassed
Growth Capability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
Cai Fang





Part III

Macro-economic Policy and Macro-economic Regulation
and Control

Bottom of Downturn and Economic
Transformation and Upgrading—Analysis and Prospect
of Economic Situation from 2014 to 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
Zhang Liqun


The Influence of the Adjustment of Childbearing Policy
on the Potential Growth Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
Cai Fang and Lu Yang
10 Analytical Prediction of China’s Status of Tax Revenue
in 2014 the Preliminary Outlook of 2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149
Fu Guangjun
Part IV

Analysis of Consumption, Investment and International

11 The Trend and Characteristic of Our Economic Development
Under the “New Normal” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
Cai Jin and Wu Wei
12 Operation of Monetary Finance Under the New Normal . . . . . . . . . 177
Yan Xiandong and Ye Huan
13 Analysis of China’s Foreign Trade Situation in 2014,
and Its Prospects in 2015—Also a Discussion on the Priority
in Foreign Development in the Transition Period . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
Jin Baisong and Liu Jianying

About the Editors

Yang Li holds a BA in Economics, from Anhui University; MA in Economics,
from Fudan University; Ph.D. in Economics, from Renmin University of China;
Visiting scholar at Columbia University, America (1998–1999); He is a party
member and Vice President of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences; Among the
first to be elected as Member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;
Researcher and doctoral supervisor; Deputy to the 12th National People’s Congress,
member of the Financial and Economic Committee of NPC; Vice President of
China Postdoctoral Science Foundation; Member of the 3rd Monetary Policy
Committee of People’s Bank of China; Awarded Academician of International
Academy for Europe and Asia in 2011; Vice Chairman of the Chinese Monetary
Society, Chinese Finance Society, China International Finance Society, China
Urban Financial Society, and China Marine Research Association; Awarded “Sun
Yefang Prize of Economics Publication and Essay” for five times; Published 23
monographs and translations and over 400 essays; Chief Editor of six large-tomes
of financial reference books.
He is currently hosting over 40 international-, national- and ministry-level
research projects.
Ping Li is Director and Researcher of the Institute of Quantitative & Technical
Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences; Academic director and leader of
technological economics; Key disciplinarian of Chinese Academy of Social
Sciences; Professor of the Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Social
Sciences; Doctoral supervisor; Director of Chinese Association of Quantitative
Economics; Vice Director of Chinese Society of Technology Economics and
Chinese Society of Regional Economics; Dedicated in the research on technology
economy and industrial economy; Is currently hosting and participating in many
research projects on national key economic issues including macro-economic prediction, such as “The Characteristics of China’s Economic Development at




About the Editors

Different Stages and the Selection of Pillar Industries (1996–2050)” and “China’s
Energy Development Strategy (2000–2050)”; participating in the feasibility
research and project demonstration of some national cross-century key projects,
such as “Three Gorges Project,” “South-to-North Water Diversion Project,” and
“Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Project”; Expert of the National
South-to-North Water Diversion Project Jury; Drafting the overall inspecting report
for South-to-North Water Diversion Project; Expert of the National
Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Assessment Panel; Representative for works
including Regional and Macro Economic Influence Analysis of Outsize Investment
Project, Green Transformation of China’s Industry and Research on Industrial
Structural Adjustment, and Optimization and Upgrading in the Twelfth Five-Year
Plan Period.
Xuesong Li holds a Ph.D. in Economics; Vice Director and Researcher of the
Institute of Quantitative & Technical Economics, Chinese Academy of Social
Sciences; doctoral supervisor; Vice Director of Chinese Association of Quantitative
Economics; Visiting fellow at Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis in Netherlands
and the Economic Department of University of Chicago; Main research fields
include analysis and prediction of economic situation and macro- and micro-effect
evaluation of economic policy; Published over one hundred essays in Social
Sciences in China, Economic Research, The Journal of Quantitative & Technical
Economics, and People’s Daily (Theoretical Version), etc.; Edited books and
co-edited books including China’s Accession to WTO and China’s Economic
Prospect, Macro Economic Effect and Prospect Analysis, The Report of Economic
Policies and Simulations, Advanced Econometrics, Research and Application of
Quantitative Economics, Frontier Methods, and Empirical Analyses in Quantitative
Economics; Awarded the Teaching Excellence Prize; Chinese Academy of Social
Sciences Research Excellence Prize; Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
Excellent Strategy Information Prize and Sun Yefang Economic Science Prize;
Nominated for the national-level talents in the “New Century Talents Project” and
an expert entitled to Government Special Allowance (GSA).
Ping Zhang is Vice Director and Researcher for the Institute of Economics,
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences; Professor of the Graduate School of Chinese
Academy of Social Sciences; Doctoral supervisor; Currently Working for the
Institute of Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences from 1988 to the
present; Hosted and participated in international cooperation with World Bank,
Asian Development Bank and World Federation of Trade Unions; Hosted Key
Biding Project in Social Science Foundation, Key Project in the Chinese Academy
of Social Sciences and national projects for two times; Main research fields include
China’s economic growth, macro-policy and income distribution; Awarded Sun

About the Editors


Yefang Economic Science Prize for co-authored books for three times; his independently authored book, Increase and Sharing and co-authored book, China
Economic Growth Frontier was awarded Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
Monograph Second Prize; National-level candidate for “New Century Talents
Project” of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security in 2009; Awarded
special government allowance by the State Council for making outstanding contributions to China’s social science research in 2011.



In the first three quarters of 2014, the growth rate of China’s gross domestic product
(GDP) reached 7.4%, showing a stable trend, and the growth rate for the whole year
was 7.3%, less than the 7.7% of 2013. Agricultural development performed well,
and the total annual grain output was expected to maintain its high level of 0.6
billion tons, possibly to fulfill an “increase for 12 consecutive years.” The development of industrial production kept within a stable range, with a slower growth
rate, but positive progress was obtained in the adjustment of the industrial structure.
The service industry developed faster than the secondary industry, maintaining a
good developmental trend and a continuous increase in its added value as a share
of the GDP. There was a slowdown in the growth of investments in fixed assets,
while consumption remained the main growth driver for China’s economic growth.
The world economy recovered slowly, which led to a lower growth rate of imports
and exports in China’s foreign trade.
With the constant expansion of the economic scale of China, China’s economic
growth has shown a decreasing year-by-year trend since the GDP growth rate bid
farewell to two digits in 2011. Under the double pressure from the enhanced
constraint of the environment and resources and the uncertainty of international
economic recovery, China’s economy has been approaching a “new normal,” which
means that the economic structure tends to optimize, the rise of prices tends to
slacken, new employment tends to stabilize, and the economic growth rate tends to
be within the potential level.
In 2015, the complex environment of domestic and foreign development and the
uneven recovery of the major economies will probably make it difficult for the
driving force of the external demand for China’s exports to rise sharply; the growth
of domestic investments should slow and tend toward stability, and consumption
should keep a steady growth. Due to the advantages such as the pulling power
of the development of the service industry, the “reform dividend” released from the
deepening of the reform, and the great potential from the transformation and
upgrading, China’s economic growth should maintain its steady and relatively fast
rate, which should reach about 7% in 2015.


Part I

General Report


Chapter 1

Economic Analysis and Forecast
of China—2014 Autumn Report
“Economic Analysis and Forecast of China” Research Group

Abstract Due to the fact that China’s economy was in a stage superimposed with
“Growth rate’s shift period, structural adjustment’s pain period, previous stimulative policy’s digestion period”, China’s economic structural reduction had a certain
necessity, complexity and rationality. The release of the reform’s dividend will also
probably take some time. China’s economy was expected to grow by about 7.3% in
2014, a drop of 0.4% points over the previous year, continuously remaining in a
reasonable range of economic growth. China’s GDP was expected to grow by about
7% in 2015. Against the “new normal” background, we need to promote a stable
and balanced development of the domestic demand, increase investments in the
areas of research and development, the high-end manufacturing industry, the
modern service industry, ecological environmental protection, infrastructure, etc.,
and optimize the investment structure. we also need to promote reasonably rigid
and improved housing needs of our residents, increase investments in basic social
security, and promote consumption by residents.
Keywords China’s economy

Á Economic situation Á New normal

“Economic Analysis and Forecast of China” Research Group: Head of the group: Li Yang;
Executive heads: Li Ping, Li Xuesong, Zhang Ping; Contributors: Li Xuesong, Zhang Tao, Li
Jun, Fan Mingtai, Lou Feng, Wang Wenbo; research members: Li Wenjun, Zhan Yanqun, Hu
Jie, Liu Qiang, Jiang Jinhe, Wan Xiangyu, Liu Shenglong, et al.
“Economic Analysis and Forecast of China” Research Group
Wujin, China
© Social Sciences Academic Press and Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2017
Y. Li et al. (eds.), Economic Analysis and Forecast of China (2015),
Research Series on the Chinese Dream and China’s Development Path,
DOI 10.1007/978-981-10-5654-3_1




“Economic Analysis and Forecast of China” Research Group

Current International Economic Environment
and Forecast of China’s Economy from 2014 to 2015
Analysis of the Current International Economic

At the time of this writing, the global economy was in the midst of a sluggish and
fragile recovery; the differentiation between America and other developed economies got aggravated and the potential growth rate of the new emerging economies
decreased. There were many reasons for this. Developed economies were mired in
high debt and new emerging economies reined in their growth speed. Since the
international financial crisis broke out in 2008, countries worldwide have adopted
different stimulus measures in order to seek a new impetus for economic growth and
thus tried to avoid the impact of the economic crisis. However, many factors have
stacked against the recovery process of the global economy. These factors have
rendered it extremely uncertain and unbalanced, such as frequent changes in the
economic engine, escalation of partial economic fluctuations, non-synchronization
of stimulus policies in different countries and its potential negative effects, and
continuing impact of geopolitics on the economy. These dynamics placed potential
negative influences on the global economy. Furthermore the global economic pattern
is still undergoing structural transformations. Against such a backdrop, it may take a
long time for the global economy to rebound.
Recently, America’s economy has shown signs of recovery; its economic growth
rate has led that of other major developed economies. Influenced by temporary
factors such as unusually cold weather and inventory adjustments, America’s
economic growth rate slowed down in the first quarter of 2014. Judging from recent
data, personal consumption has shown a strong growth momentum, having become
the main stimulus for the economic growth. Personal investment made a positive
contribution to the economic growth while the negative influence of net exports on
economic growth has been weakening. The unemployment rate has been declining
amidst stability and the nonfarm payroll employment has increased by over 200,000
people over six consecutive months, the former being the lowest and the latter,
being the highest since the break-out of the crisis. It is uncertain when the Federal
Reserve will raise interest rates and what the ratio of the interest rate increase will
be in the future after it bows out of this round of QE. This will greatly influence the
international bulk commodity markets and international capital flows.
The economic recovery process of the European Union and Eurozone slowed
down and entered an enduring period of sluggish growth. The serious imbalances in
the Eurozone economic recovery, the impotence of the measure in improving
employment, and the dependence on a diverse and quantitative easing policy have
hindered their economic growth. Recently, in the European Union the economic
climate index has maintained a low level. The Manufacturing Purchasing
Managers’ Index and Consumer Confidence Index, showed a month-to-month
decrease. Core countries in the Eurozone faced a serious economic downturn; the


1 Economic Analysis and Forecast of China—2014 Autumn Report


economic recovery in Germany came to a sudden halt while the economy in France
was still in a slump. Notably, the economic recovery process in the peripheral
countries of the Eurozone varied from the core zones.
The economic growth in Japan showed a marked decline. After soaring in the
first quarter of 2014, the gross domestic product annual increase rate of the second
quarter decreased by 7.1% after adjustment, breaking the record since the first
quarter of 2009. The upgrading of the consumption tax became the major reason for
Japan’s economic slump. The negative influence of which will become more salient
in the future and the “Abeconomics” implemented for two years will face
unprecedented challenges. Deflation has slightly improved in Japan’s economy, the
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index has significantly recovered and the
orders for export goods have increased incrementally. However, the export growth
did not reach the expected goal and the cost raise incurred by currency devaluation
and consumption tax raise, crippled the capacity of personal consumption. The
increase of Japan’s central government debt risk will have a discernable impact on
Japan’s long-term interest rate. Its future development affords no optimism.
Generally speaking, after rising to the peak of this round of the economic cycle,
the economies of the newly emerging and developing countries have developed
slowly; their contribution rates to the global economic recovery have grown
measurably slower. The markets of the newly emerging economies made some
adjustments not only for the negative influence of their unreasonable economic
structure, but also the revocation of America’s quantitative easing policy.
Particularly the insufficient external demand of developed economies and low
pricing of the international bulk commodities contributed to this downturn. Some
newly emerging economies of current accounts and fiscal “twin deficits” faced
accelerating capital outflow that contributed to the slackened economic growth. In
addition, the constant currency devaluation, pressure from high inflation, increasing
local volatility and pronounced economic fragility were cumulative strains.
The risk and uncertainty of the global economy is likely to be compounded by
the obvious polarization of economic policy from various countries. The combination of factors such as the current global economic environment and geopolitics
are added challenges. The polarization of the global economic policy was mainly
characterized by the heterogenization of monetary policy in developed countries.
The concurrencies of the normalized monetary policy and non-normalized quantitative easing made it difficult for countries to make reasonable forecasts on the
global economic situation, while maintaining effective communication. The
imbalance, fragility and mutability of the global economic recovery posed great
challenges for China’s foreign trade in the short term and greater demand for
China’s strategic decisions in the political and economic world stage in the long



“Economic Analysis and Forecast of China” Research Group

China’s Economic Forecast of Major Indexes
from 2014 to 2015

At the time of this writing, under the pressures of growing domestic resources,
environmental restrictions, and unstable international economic recovery, China has
entered a “New Normal” in which its economic growth rate is reaching the potential
level, the commodity pricing tends to be moderate, the new employment remains
stable and the economic structure tends to be optimal. While China is emphasizing
stability and quality in macro-control and enhancing reform and innovation, many
in-depth contradictions and problems in economic operations are gradually being
solved, therefore optimizing the economic structure.
Since China’s economy is currently experiencing three stages simultaneously:
“growth-rate shifting stage, structural adjustment-twitch stage and preliminary
stimulating policy digesting stage”, its structural slowdown was therefore reasonable, inevitable and complicated. The process of unleashing reform dividends will
take some time. It was expected that China’s economic growth would be approximately 7.3% in 2014, 0.4% points lower than that of the year before. The economic
growth was still in a reasonable range.
Owing to the enhancement of the real estate market adjustments, the forecast in
2014 was 0.1% points lower than that made in the spring of 2014. In this sector, the
real estate investment, which accounted for 1/4 of the total investments, had grown
measurably slower. Although the government had increased the investment in
infrastructure, which accounted for 1/5 of the total investments and was expected to
produce an annual growth of more than 20%, it still cannot completely prevent
losses or risks incurred by the decline of the real estate investment growth rate
because of financing restrictions, insufficient project preparations, and low rates of
return on investments.
In 2014, the tertiary industry grew faster than the secondary industry. It was
expected that the added value of the primary industry, the secondary industry and
the tertiary industry would increase by 3.8, 7.2 and 7.9%, respectively, but conversely their growth rate dropped to 0.2, 0.6 and 0.4% points respectively, compared to the previous year. They increased the GDP growth rate by 0.4, 3.4 and
3.5% respectively. Their contribution rate to the GDP growth was 4.9, 46.6 and
48.5% respectively, among which the primary industry was almost the same as the
year before; the secondary industry dropped from which value the plummeting
occurred while that of the tertiary industry had improved for four consecutive years.
It was expected that the added value of the tertiary industry would take up 47.1% of
the GDP, completing the goal of the 12th Five-Year Plan that “The percentage of
the added value of the tertiary industry of the GDP grew from 43% in 201 to 47% in
2015” one year ahead of schedule.
The two areas that experienced a decline in the commercial residential building
in 2014 were the sales area and sales amount. They declined sharply while the real
estate investments increased at a much slower rate. The growing industries were not
strong enough to support a stable investment growth and their financing cost was


Tài liệu bạn tìm kiếm đã sẵn sàng tải về

Tải bản đầy đủ ngay