Gaidars revolution the inside account of the economic transformation of russia
fter the collapse of the Soviet Union, a team of young economic reformers led by Yegor Gaidar worked to create a new economic future for Russia. Against an overwhelming threat of looming hunger and civil war, they created a market economy which is still in place today. In the face of crisis, a process of ‘shock therapy‘– involving the end of price regulation, the introduction of privatization and a reduction in public spending – appeared necessary. Their plans have been the subject of controversy ever since – the path to the new economy was not smooth and Russia continued to struggle with economic crises throughout the 1990s. Yet Gaidar’s plans have been widely praised for saving the country from complete collapse.
For the fi rst time in this book, the participants in the process reveal their experiences during those frantic days, their insights into Yegor Gaidar and of the formation of post-Soviet Russia. In doing so, Gaidar’s Revolution provides a unique perspective on contemporary Russia, making it an indispensable resource for understanding its economic and political complexities.
Petr Aven is a Russian banker and economist who served as Minister of Foreign Economic Relations for the Russian Federation (1991–2). He holds a PhD in Economics from Moscow State University and is now Chairman of the Board of Directors of Alfa Bank, Russia’s largest commercial
bank. He is a trustee of the Centre for Economic Policy Research and a member of the Board of Directors of the New Economic School in Moscow. Alfred Kokh is a writer and economist who was a Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation in the 1990s and a chief architect of Russia’s privatization. He holds a PhD in Economics from the St Petersburg Mathematics and Economics Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences and is the author of A Crate of Vodka: An Insider View on the 20 Years That Shaped Modern Russia and The Selling of the Soviet Empire: Politics and Economics of Russia’s Privatization.
“Aven and Kokh provide a fascinating history of the second Russian revolution of 1989–92, as told by participants to participants, and focusing on the central role of Yegor Gaidar. Even the most imaginative novelist could not match the drama and clash of personalities as vividly as these interviews.” William Nordhaus, Sterling Professor of Economics, Yale University “In 1990–3 Russia was transformed from a centrally planned to a market economy (with Russian characteristics) – a period of economic and political turbulence for all involved. This fascinating book records, through interviews two decades later, the recollections, reflections, and re-evaluations of key leaders in that dramatic transformation. A remarkable collection.” Richard N. Cooper, Professor of Economics, Harvard University “This fascinating book records the recollections and ideas of the key participants in Russia’s attempts at market reforms, with a special focus on the central role of the brilliant and cunning Yegor Gaidar. For anyone who lived through these reforms without the benefit of hindsight, or who has studied what went right and what did not, the key players and events jump off the page with action and insight. No one ever knows all of history. This oral history allows us to know far more than we have to date.” David Lipton, First Deputy Managing Director, International Monetary Fund (IMF)
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List of Illustrations Foreword by Leszek Balcerowicz From the Authors A Book Written Under Duress 1.
GENNADY BURBULIS: “Yeltsin Served Us!” Yeltsin: Together and Nearby The Appearance of Gaidar Démarches and Resignations The Disintegration of the USSR About Gaidar
ANATOLY CHUBAIS: “We Destroyed the People’s Idea of Justice with Voucher Privatization” Muscovites and St Petersburgians The Inevitability of Change With Yeltsin or Without A Complicated Choice Reforms and the Collapse of the USSR October 1993 We Never Fought in Thirty Years
ALEXANDER SHOKHIN: “We Took as Much Power as We Could” How Many Programs Were There? Recollections About the Candidates The Kamikaze Government
The Election of the Premier Between Gaidar and Chernomyrdin Farewell to Gaidar Wine, Yeltsin, and the Stillborn Coalition Good Premier 4.
ANDREI NECHAYEV: “It’s Indecent to Blame the Former Regime for Everything” The Status of the Country Hunger and Cold Concerning Money Separatism Working with Gaidar When Things Settled Down On Mistakes Back to Gaidar Present Day
VLADIMIR LOPUKHIN: “That Was the Bone-Breaking Machine” Why Gaidar? Price Liberalization Lukoil, Yukos, Surgutneftegaz Work and Dismissal A Change of Elites An Extremely Decent Man Crazy Tempo
STANISLAV ANISIMOV: “It Was a Nightmare” Foreign Practices of the USSR Academician Velikhov and Copper Export How the System Broke Down “There Would Have Been Hunger” Attempts to Keep the Union Young Reformers
“Putin Practically Committed Crimes” Could the Union Have Been Saved? 7.
VLADIMIR MASHCHITS: “We Were Like the Bourgeois Specialists of the Civil War Period” Revolution Is an Impulse Why Gaidar? Public Politics The Collapse of the Union The Gaidar Team as Military Specialists
ANDREI KOZYREV: A Bona Fide “Kamikaze” At the Soviet Foreign Ministry The Russian Foreign Ministry Change of Course The Attitude of the West Humanitarian Aid Internal Contradictions Hot Spots CIS and NATO Resignation
SERGEI SHAKHRAI: “Those Events Made Yeltsin More Isolated, Angry, and Vindictive” Parliament Work The Yeltsin Team The Putsch of 1991 The Collapse of the USSR The Belovezh Accords About the Government Gaidar and Yeltsin
PAVEL GRACHEV: “I, the Defense Minister, Did Not Allow the Army to Break Up” Service Before 1991 and the GKChP Putsch Ministerial Rank Relations with NATO
Dismissal and Afterward On Gaidar’s Government The Chechen Campaign The Army and the Putsch of 1993 11.
JAMES BAKER: “You Still Have Not Built a Free Market Economy”
YEGOR GAIDAR: “I Made a Bad Public Politician” First Conversation: On the Resignation Second Conversation: On Morality and Effectiveness in Politics Third Conversation: On War Fourth Conversation: On Privatization
What We Learned
Afterword by Carl Bildt Appendix: Biographical Listing Notes Plates
I HAVE READ THIS BOOK WITH THE GREATEST INTEREST and—sometimes—deep emotions. It deals with one of the most important developments in modern history, described and analyzed by people who were not mere observers of this crucial process but its participants. And they—the reformers, the Gaidar team—were on the side of individual freedom, especially economic liberty, which is the key to prosperity. Therefore, they were on the right side of history and on the side of basic human rights. I perceive it to be a great injustice that they are still so often blamed for results of actions that were not theirs or were beyond their control. The book contains a lot of interesting information and insights presented by key players in Russia’s early transformation. For example, conversations between the reformers help to clarify how their economic views and programs developed in the 1980s. The book shows how the Soviet Union during 1990–1 was moving toward collapse without the full knowledge and intent of the key political players. This reminds us of the law of unintended consequences in history. The conversations in the book depict a striking contrast between the understanding of and support for reforms in the USSR, and then Russia, presented by the Bush-Baker team in the 1980s and early 1990s, and the neglect and ignorance on this issue displayed by Clinton and his administration after the 1992 US elections. From the historical perspective, including the fairly recent civil war in Yugoslavia, the amazingly peaceful dissolution of the Soviet Union was a miracle. How this was achieved, how the danger of a potential catastrophe was prevented, is one of the topics of this fascinating book. It was a historic achievement by key political actors such as Gorbachev, Yeltsin, Gaidar, Kozyrev, and Grachev. The book also sheds light on one tragic exception—the war in Chechnya—and suggests that it could have been avoided if not for the miscalculations and blunders of some people around Yeltsin, and Yeltsin himself. The authors do not shy away from asking some difficult questions. One of the key questions is whether the liberal-democratic camp (the early reformers) could have fared better politically if it had pursued a different political strategy: that of building its own political party much earlier and distancing itself from Yeltsin when his path clearly diverged from the views and program of the reformers. This is a dilemma best discussed by the insiders; an outsider like me can only offer some
comparative remarks. First, whether and when a person engages in electoral politics depends on his or her personality and preferences. I perceived myself as a technocrat entrusted in early September 1989 with a historic mission: to stabilize Poland’s economy, which was in the grip of hyperinflation, and transform it into dynamic capitalism. It was for me a sufficiently large mission to which to dedicate 100 percent of my time and energy. I think Gaidar’s attitude was similar; in the Czech Republic, Václav Klaus’s views and preferences were different. My first period in government ended in December 1991, and only in early 1995 did I decide to enter electoral politics by becoming leader of the free-market party Freedom Union. After the elections in autumn 1997, we created a governmental coalition with a political bloc organized around Solidarność, and together we pushed some important reforms—first of all major privatizations, fundamental pension reform, and local government reform. Second, the inherited economic situation in the former Czechoslovakia was much less dramatic than Poland’s in 1989, not to mention Russia’s in late 1991 and earlier. The leader of the economic team in Czechoslovakia simply had more time to dedicate to non-economic issues than the leaders in Poland and Russia. Third, the reformers’ party, headed by Gaidar, achieved quite a success in the elections in late 1993, becoming the largest party in the Duma. The same happened with the reformist party in Poland in 1991 and 1993. Neither in Poland nor in Russia had the reform parties achieved a majority in the parliament. And the electoral success of the Choice of Russia party in 1993 appears to be all the greater, given the economic dislocations suffered by the population, not so much because of the reforms but rather owing to the inherited economic situation. The demise of the reformist party in Russia during elections in 1996 should therefore be explained by the developments of 1993–6. One of these had probably been the perceived association of the party with Yeltsin’s unpopular policies during this period. But what would have been the alternative scenario? Would the communists have won the elections if the party had distanced itself from Yeltsin? And, if so, would Russia have followed the Lukashenko path? This danger could not have been dismissed out of hand, and certainly it must have existed in the minds of reformers in Russia. The reformers in the Czech Republic, Poland, and other Central European countries did not face such dramatic choices. Finally, the political success of an early economic reformer does not guarantee in every case great success for economic reforms. Much depends again on personality and preferences. The extent of market reforms in Klaus’s Czech Republic is not larger than in other Central and East European (CEE) countries, and the growth record of that country is worse than Slovakia’s, for example. And sometimes the reverse is true: people perceived as non-reformers pursue reforms, forced by circumstances or because their previous opposition stance resulted from insufficient information or political posturing. According to the book, this seems to have been the case for Viktor Chernomyrdin while he was prime minister of Russia. One should, therefore, differentiate between the political success of the reformers and the success of the reforms. When in 1998 I proposed a flat tax in Poland,
it was blocked in parliament, but a couple of years later it was reintroduced largely by the parties that previously had opposed it. I regard this as one of my greatest triumphs. One of the issues discussed in this book (on a much larger scale) is the kind of economic system that emerged in Russia in 1990, and the rather disappointing economic performance of Russia from 1991 onward. Inflation remained very high for a long time, and gross domestic product (GDP) started to grow only during the second half of 1999, after a substantial decline. How to explain these developments? First, I would note that the statistical decline in GDP in Russia overstates the decline in welfare—to a much larger extent than in the CEE countries—because the share of military production was much larger in Russia. Therefore, the shrinkage of the military sector was much more pronounced in Russia than in the CEE, and this substantially reduced GDP but not overall welfare in Russia. Building fewer tanks does not lower the general standard of living. However, even with this correction, the question of Russia’s rather disappointing economic performance largely remains. This fact cannot be blamed on the defective economic knowledge of the Gaidar team. My own personal impressions as well as those of other people strongly suggest that they were in this respect certainly on par with their Polish colleagues.1 However, the Russian team acted under much more difficult and constraining circumstances. First, they inherited some time-bombs that we in Poland did not have. The main one appears to have been the authority granted to the Central Bank as early as 1991 to increase the ruble money supply. And the ruble zone was supported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF)! The uncoordinated emissions of the ruble were sufficient to prevent a successful early stabilization. Second, the Gaidar team had much less time for reforms, and during this short time faced much stronger political constraints than the Polish team. We in Poland had more than two years (from early September 1989 to December 1991) for a decisive reform push, facing first a friendly parliament, and later at least a non-hostile one. It allowed us to launch widespread liberalization, to dismantle monopolies, to reorganize parts of public administration, to start a decisive macroeconomic stabilization, and to begin the privatization of state-owned enterprises (though, even under these rather favorable political circumstances, privatization was delayed relative to my plans). Gaidar and his team, as I have already stressed, had much less time and faced much stronger political constraints. And Gaidar had to deal with issues I did not have to—for example, preventing conflicts in some parts of Russia. This more limited room for maneuver most likely explains the more limited economic liberalization in Russia, with less de-monopolization of the economy than in Poland—features that unfavorably affected the later evolution of the Russian political and economic system and, as a result, its performance. The Russian reformers dealing with privatization faced uncomfortable trade-offs that did not exist in the CEE countries, such as whether to permit loans-for-shares programs. On the one hand, it was not difficult to foresee that this scheme was likely to strengthen the oligarchic groups, resulting in negative political consequences. On the other hand, one could not dismiss as a mere fantasy the danger that, in the absence of such programs, there could be a pro-communist shift in
Russia. In view of the time-bombs the Russian reformers had inherited—the short time they were in government, the political constraints they were exposed to, the special dilemmas they had to face—it is a fundamental intellectual error (or intellectual dishonesty), and a great injustice, to blame them for the evolution of the Russian politico-economic system and for the related rather disappointing performance of the Russian economy. Given these circumstances, it is very hard to see what more or what else they could have done. They were rather brave kamikazes (to borrow an expression used in this book) battling against prevailing odds, and in the service of a mission of truly historic proportions. They deserve deep respect, and especially deep gratitude. And this is particularly true of Yegor Gaidar. The conversations in the book strengthen my personal impression that he was an exceptional individual. He combined very high moral standards, intellectual rigor, vast knowledge, decisiveness, and mild manners. What a rare combination! I am sure he was a hero of contemporary history in Russia—and the world. It is very important that this great book helps to restore his rightful place in public opinion. And we should continue our efforts in this respect. Leszek Balcerowicz Warsaw, October 2012
FROM THE AUTHORS
THIS BOOK IS A COLLECTION OF OUR CONVERSATIONS with members of Russia’s first post-communist government, which took office in November 1991 (as well as with James Baker, then US secretary of state). This government is usually named after Yegor Gaidar, the leader of its economic segment. In fact, we initially wanted to talk about Gaidar, as we wished to protect his memory from stupid myths, dismayingly unfair accusations, and diverse lies. But the very first meetings with our interlocutors exceeded the boundaries of “conversations about Yegor” to embrace a much broader range of issues: the situation in the USSR before the Yeltsin-Gaidar reforms, possible alternative scenarios, the reformers’ mistakes and compromises, reasons for successes and failures, and so on. Being economists, we realized that an important factor in the success of any undertaking is the comparative advantages of the players. We had two. The first was our participation in the events under discussion. Second, we had close and trusting relations with each of our interlocutors. We think these advantages enabled us to harvest unexpected and new information from the protagonists of this book, and to learn and understand something new to us and our prospective readers. The Gaidar government was in office when the Soviet Union broke apart, the sociopolitical system changed in every former Soviet republic, and the foreign-policy direction of the country shifted, among other things. We were amazed at how different the recollection of the same events by different participants could be, and how differently they interpreted the facts. As it turns out, everyone has “a truth of their own” (even if people belong to the same political forces, the same “team”). This does not mean, though, that recollections are pointless or that it is impossible to learn “the real truth.” On the contrary, honest evidence from the participants in those events—especially as they were sincerely prepared not only to defend what they had done but also to speak about their mistakes or hesitations—gave us a maximally clear idea of “what really had happened,” and helped us to draw necessary conclusions for the future. Most of our conversations were published on the website of the Russian edition of Forbes in 2010–12 (and in the print magazine in abridged versions). We would like to express our profound gratitude to Vladimir Fedorin, who supervised the project at the magazine and later on became the editor of the book. We are especially grateful to the founding father of Polish economic reforms, Leszek Balcerowicz, who kindly agreed to write the foreword, and to Carl Bildt, who wrote the
afterword—and of course to all of our interlocutors. Petr Aven, Alfred Kokh
A BOOK WRITTEN UNDER DURESS
Do not give what is holy to dogs; and do not throw your pearls before swine, or they will trample them under foot and turn and maul you. MATTHEW 7:6
I DO NOT WANT TO WRITE THIS MATERIAL . It comes out clumsy, heavy, spiteful, and I do not want to. And I understand why: I simply do not want to harp on the same tune for the thousandth time. That is, that Gaidar saved the country from famine and war and gave a chance for freedom and other things our opponents call rubbish. I read the online comments on his death. There was some (and I think it was an abundance) of our good old Russian meanness that would not have occurred to either my associates or myself if any of our brave critics had died. For example, Doctor of Workers’ Sciences Vasily Shandybin died shortly after Yegor, but did any of us make such comments as “a cur’s death for a cur” or “may this never stop”? No. Yet Vasily Ivanovich never spared us. He made false allegations sometimes, and, to be frank, told lies. But they let Yegor have it. Not just one or two. They were enthusiastically jeering. What can I say—fine Christians. No match for those attenuated Czechs or Portuguese. Gavriil Popov and Yuri Luzhkov were surprisingly creative, saying that Gaidar made people starve to death.1 They claimed they were telling the truth. They called a lie—blunt, deliberate, and cynical—the truth. Neither fasting nor prayer can rid me of the blind disgust and hatred for these “kind people.” I have no Christian meekness. That makes my words come out clumsy and heavy. Anger smothers me and grudge grips my chest. It would not have mattered if it had been all about me. Honest! I let those dear Russians have it often. As they did me. We’re even in that sense. But Yegor … he loved them all. I know that for sure. He stoically endured the abusive words. I thought his enemies would finally shut up after his death. They should be glad, they outlived him! But no! They still kick him although he is dead—they dance on his coffin, and they sneer and try to outdo one another in their attacks. And they lie, lie, lie. I was being buffeted by my thoughts when Petr Aven called me and said: “Listen, I think there has been so much absurdity around Yegor and our whole government that we cannot keep silent any longer. I reject the apologetics to which some of our friends are given and the cheap tales spun by Luzhkov and Popov. If you are ready for a calm and maximally objective dialogue, I would like us to
write about Yegor, our government, and those times.” “Am I ready for an objective and impartial dialogue? Hell, yes! I am a model of impartiality and don’t-give-a-shit-ism. Let’s do it. I’ve been wanting to do it for a long time. In the best traditions of objectiveness and impartiality. It’s just the right time to do it, given my elegiac and mellow mood. Quiet and lyrical, melancholy and conciliatory. Isn’t that the right mood for creating an objective and impartial text?” “Terrific! I will come over tomorrow and we will have a talk.” The next day Petr was punctual, elegant, ironic, and erudite. His speech was brisk and clear. He spoke in rapid, clipped phrases. I could tell he had thought about everything. Alfred Kokh, February 2010
PETR AVEN: I think we must speak about Gaidar. The latest article by Popov and Luzhkov is highly telling. And the reaction to it is even more so. I think it is very important to tell the truth. Naturally, everyone has their own truth, but if everyone tries to be objective, we will get a more or less correct impression of him and his role in the history of our country. ALFRED KOKH: I am very glad you had this idea. I am itching to talk about Yegor with you, because there are few people who can discuss him without being pompous or resorting to liberal or greatpower slogans. AVEN: It is very important not to fall into extremes. On the one hand, some say that Gaidar is responsible for everything that is going on in Russia—the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the destruction of the defense industry, economic ruin, and lots of other things. On the other hand, frankly, I am equally irritated by pompous speeches declaring that Gaidar and his team, to which I am honored to have belonged, saved Russia and that if not for us then Russia would have been hungry and cold. KOKH: Petr, let’s analyze the main myths created around Yegor and that government. AVEN: I am ready. And the first myth I propose to analyze is that no one wanted to join the government at the end of 1991—this is widespread. They claim that only the Gaidar team dared to do what nobody else wanted to do. I think this is not true. Plenty of people other than Gaidar were seeking power, and many of them wanted to head the government. The name Yuri Vladimirovich Skokov was mentioned most often. The day before the decision was made, everyone was wondering who Yeltsin would prefer—Gaidar or Skokov? KOKH: It is hard for me to judge what alternatives he had then. I was still working in St Petersburg. Nevertheless, Yeltsin chose Gaidar. Why was that? Who played the decisive role? Golovkov?
Burbulis? Gaidar himself? AVEN: I think we will come back to this issue. And now I would like to speak about one more thing— a topic of recent debates—that the Gaidar team saved Russia from hunger, cold, and a civil war. Being a liberal economist, I think that neither starvation nor cold happens if the government does not meddle in the lives of people. Although in 1991 shops were empty, and it was impossible to buy anything without having to stand in line, I did not see a single dead horse being cut into chunks in the middle of Tverskaya Street in Moscow, the way it was in 1918. I also remember that restaurants were open in Moscow in 1991, and no one actually died of hunger; and although there were panicky rumors of cold, there was no terrible cold, actually. In my opinion, excessive praise provokes excessive criticism. KOKH: I have nothing to say about restaurants operating in Moscow and St Petersburg at that time. I know nothing about it because I had no money to go to a restaurant. I was the chairman of the Sestroretsk district executive committee. It may seem to us now that it was a fun job, but life did not look so easy to me back then. I remember a truck bringing chicken to a shop once. The shop was about to close, and people elected an organizing committee to guard that chicken through the night so that “the shop staff did not give it to their preferred customers.” I had to assign a policeman to guard the truck because people refused to go home otherwise. There were countless deputy commissions formed at the district council to distribute humanitarian aid: Bundeswehr food rations, sneakers, ragged clothes. There was Chinese canned meat, some foreign-made by-products, and it was very humiliating—alms, handouts. But it was highly welcome. The West was simply saving us from hunger. So it would be rather naive to say that everything was fine because restaurants were open and people did not eat dead cats, dogs, or rats. Luzhkov and Popov went too far in claiming “thirty-six cases of death by starvation” in Zelenograd. They lost their sense of proportion. I don’t doubt that there may have been some who starved to death, but there are some today as well. Just recently [February 4, 2010] I saw this on the internet: “RIA Novosti reports a dual tragedy on Zelenogradskaya Street: a father and a daughter died, the father died of a heart attack, and the neglected daughter died of starvation. The Moscow police are verifying circumstances of the death of a 40-year-old man and his three-year-old daughter. According to preliminary forensic reports, the man and the baby girl died about 30 days ago. Forensic experts presume that the father and the daughter died during the New Year holidays. Life News said that the man, 40, died of cardiac arrest, while the three-year-old baby girl with disabilities he was raising alone died of starvation. The bodies were taken to a morgue. A criminal case is pending. There was a similar incident in October 2009. A man and his son were found dead in an apartment house in Moscow’s Khoroshevsky district. The man was 32 years old, and his son was 18 months old.”
So what? Naturally, that is tragic, but it does not occur to anyone to blame Luzhkov for those deaths. And one more thing: assuming the incidents really happened, it is quite characteristic that Luzhkov and Popov, who speak about these tragedies, do not feel their culpability. And they were in charge of the Moscow authorities (Zelenograd included) at that time. Obviously, if these deaths happened for real, they are much more responsible for them than Gaidar! These gerontocrats have totally lost their capacity for self-criticism. AVEN: Concerning the hunger deaths in Zelenograd, I fully agree with you. I am not an apologist of the Soviet regime, as you understand. My wife spent four hours a day buying food because she had to go to every nearby shop to find anything. KOKH: Was that after you came back from Vienna? AVEN: That was both before we went to Vienna and after our return. About Vienna: when colleagues and friends came to visit me there, I took them to butchers’ shops. It was a shock for them. KOKH: Yes, I took a picture of myself in front of a butcher’s shop in Helsinki in the same period. AVEN: True, things were very bad in Moscow and the whole country back then. It was impossible to buy anything—life was miserable. When they claim now that the Soviet Union was heaven on earth, they lie. But we must understand there was no great famine, either. People bought chicken somehow. But it might have come to famine if liberalization of prices had been delayed further. KOKH: Exactly! I realized then we were very close to that. And, by the way, I told Yegor (although it is bad to say that) that we should have waited for famine to begin. God forbid—naturally that is an exaggeration. But if it had really happened and people had experienced it briefly, then our actions would have been appreciated. But hunger was stopped by our efforts five minutes before it started knocking on the door, and now people can say whatever they want. AVEN: That is correct. However, if Gaidar had come to power a year earlier, probably he could have implemented reforms instead of urgently saving the country. That is a big problem for reformers: they start passing reforms just when the country needs salvation, and that frequently contradicts the reforms. KOKH: Absolutely. I spoke a lot about that with Yegor, and he agreed. What he did was not market reforms or liberal reforms or shock therapy. For the first five months he was doing what he had to do, and he had no choice whatsoever. He did whatever any responsible government would have done in his place.
AVEN: Not quite, but that’s almost the case. That is what I am talking about: such situations are inherently a mix of reformism and salvation. KOKH: “Salvation” sounds pompous to me. There is another way of looking at it. Do you remember what they taught us at school: the principle of rational egoism? If you want to keep your position, you have to do that; otherwise they will wipe you out. Besides, the situation required either rapid action or no action at all. AVEN: Judging by what you say, any person in Gaidar’s place would have done the same. KOKH: Yes, if he is a responsible person who is about doing the job and not just stealing money. AVEN: That is correct. KOKH: And now the question is whether the previous government, of Silayev, was irresponsible. That is, Silayev seemed to be a very responsible person. But his government did nothing but the most necessary things, and failed to prevent the exacerbation of problems, which made the Gaidar government policy so painful. The Harvest 90 was a pure scam.2 And the agreement with Noga, which deprived Russia of its sovereignty—who did all that? 3 Silayev and Kulik? Yes! The damage, both material and reputational, is impossible to evaluate. It was huge. As our national leader likes to say: Who went to prison? They wrote about some impossible reforms, the 500 Days program. Absolute daydreaming. The Silayev government, which ruled the country for 18 months, was totally inadequate to the situation! AVEN: But aren’t you forgetting that the Soviet Union and, naturally, the Soviet government existed practically throughout the term of Silayev’s office? Although Russia’s sovereignty was proclaimed on June 12, 1990, it was formal and inoperative to a large extent. That government had no powers to implement extensive reforms. KOKH: Maybe I’m going too far here, but that stagnation for two or three years made the natural and simple steps Gaidar took, such as price liberalization, so brutal and shocking, so painful, and so politically colored. There is no politics in price liberalization, just as there is no politics in appendicitis surgery. If it is not removed, the patient dies—that’s it. Why all those discussions? When to act, to what extent, and in which sequence—all this idle talk is bullshit. It had to be removed yesterday, immediately and drastically. Partial removal would be more painful and in the end have the same result.
AVEN: Obviously, if everything had started simultaneously with the events in Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary—that is, in 1989—lots of things could have been done more easily and with lower costs, both monetary and political. KOKH: As you remember, the year 1991 did not start with the appointment of Gaidar! Gaidar took office on November 7 (which is symbolic, by the way). The government got down to business only in January. You spent two months laying down the normative framework for the reforms. Actually, operational control of the economy only started on January 1. AVEN: Not quite. Even before the New Year we had to obtain and distribute hard currency, buy drugs, distribute rubles, run industries. Operational control started on the very first day. KOKH: But the government started doing its real work on January 1. AVEN: It would be more correct to say: the government started to operate within its normative framework on January 1. KOKH: Correct. And actually, the first act that showed us we had a new regime was price liberalization. That was supposed to be the main thing. AVEN: That actually was the main thing. KOKH: But, before that, many things happened in the year 1991. For instance, the April monetary reform done by the Soviet government of Valentin Pavlov. I am amazed they do not speak about that at all. It was Pavlov’s reform, not Gaidar’s, that nullified people’s savings! As the district executive committee chairman, I remember that reform perfectly. I was the local official who executed that reform! I remember that all deposits bigger than 5,000 rubles were frozen for five years. AVEN: No one remembers that at all anymore. KOKH: By the moment Gaidar and his team took the governmental office, those deposits were long gone from the USSR Sberbank. All the deposits were withdrawn by the Soviet government and covered the Soviet budget deficit. So Gaidar could not simply nullify people’s savings (or, as some say, steal them). There was nothing to nullify. Remember the film Operation Y, where a character said, “There is nothing to steal, everything was stolen before us”? AVEN: Absolutely. There was no money at all for the last six months. That was the first big lie about Gaidar—that he was the person who destroyed people’s savings. There were no savings by then;