Nghiên cứu tác động của chuyển dịch cơ cấu ngành kinh tế đến việc làm trong quá trình tăng trưởng kinh tế ở việt nam tt tiếng anh
VIETNAM ACADEMY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES
GRADUATE ACADEMY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES
NGUYEN THI DONG
RESEARCHING THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC SECTORAL RESTRUCTURING ON EMPLOYMENT IN THE PROCESS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH IN
PHÁT TRIỂN HỢP TÁC XÃ VẬN TÀI THỦY-BỘ NỘI ĐỊA Ở ĐỒNG BẰNG SÔNG CỬU LONG Major: Code :
Development Economic 9.31.01.05
SUMMARY OF DOCTORAL DISSERTATION
HANOI - 2019
The thesis is completed at: GRADUATE ACADEMY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES VIETNAM ACADEMY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES
Supervisors: 1. Assos. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Quoc Te 2. Assos. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Van Luan
Referee 1: Assos. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Chien Thang Referee 2: Assos. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Thi Nguyet Referee 3: Assos. Prof. Dr. Ngo Tuan Nghia
The dissertation will be examined by Examination Board of Academy, at: Graduate Academy of Social Sciences.
The thesis can be found at: - Graduate Academy of Social Sciences’ Library - National Library
INTRODUCTION 1. Necessity of the research After a serious domestic socio-economic crisis in the 1980s, Vietnam decided to comprehensively innovate economic thinking. The main content of innovation is to abandon the planned economic mechanism and move to the market mechanism with state management. Only less than 10 years after “Doi Moi”, Vietnam has made a strong transition, from being an embargoed and surrounded country, it has become one of the world's top food exporters. Taking advantage of this development, in 2001, the Ninth Congress of the Vietnamese Communist Party set the goal that Vietnam will basically become a modern industrialized country by 2020. However, 15 years later, at the 11th session of the 13th National Assembly, the National Assembly’s resolution admitted that the plan had failed. Vietnam’s failure to achieve the goal of becoming a modern
industrial country by 2020 is due to various reasons. One of the reasons that can be mentioned is that the selection of growth model in Vietnam in this period is not clear. Although Vietnam set a target to become an industrialized country by 2020, Vietnam did not provide specific orientations to implement it thouroughly. The most important goal that Vietnamese economy targets in each year and every five-year plan is stil GDP growth – an index that is not much related to the speed of industrialization of the country. There seems to be satisfaction with high growth in the past but there is no good preparation for dealing with difficulties, which has made Vietnam fall into a “middle income trap”. Reality shows that while digital resources are growing rapidly, Vietnam 1
is still trying to rely on natural resources to boost the economy. Therefore, after 30 years of “Doi Moi”, Vietnam’s economic sectoral structure has shifted towards reducing the rate of agriculture, increase the rate of industry, but this change is still slow, in which the number of unskilled jobs is very high. How does Vietnam get closer to the goal of becoming a modern industrialized country? Perhaps the first thing Vietnam should do is to aim for a new growth model: growth based on labor productivity, associated with creating more high quality jobs on the whole society. There are many factors affecting employment and labor productivity growth. However, depending on the different stages of development of the economy, one or several factors will become the key factor. In the current period, economic structural change can be considered a leverage element that stimulates employment growth. Accordingly, when economic structure is shifted reasonably, similar to the development of the world economy, labor productivity achieved in each economic sector will be increased, jobs will be transformed and increased both in quanlity and quantity. Moreover, the trend of deep globalization and revolution of technology 4.0 with versions 4.1 and 4.2 is changing the way of structural transformation of any economy in the connection with global value chains. In the coming time, the industry structure will be more closely linked with the technological structure, meanwhile, digital conversion is always considered as a direct influence on the labor force, but its effect has never been quantified. Therefore, the relationship between economic sectoral structural transformation and employment is considered a complex relationship, but this may be the key to helping the 2
economy achieve its goal of becoming an industrial country in the shortest possible time, so the author has chosen the topic “Researching the impact of economic sectoral restructuring on employment in the process of economic growth in Vietnam” as the research content for the doctoral dissertation in development economic. 2. Objectives and research tasks of the thesis 2.1.1.
The basic objective of the thesis is to research the impact of economic sectoral restructuring on employment. On that basis, the thesis proposes scientific-based solutions to promote restructuring process towards creating more quality jobs in Vietnam. 2.1.2.
To accomplish the research objectives, the thesis offers specific tasks: - Firstly,
scientifically systematize the relationship
economic sectoral restructuring and employment; - Secondly, using Granger causality test to determine whether the relationship between economic sectoral restructuring and employment in Vietnam is one-way or two-way causality; - Thirdly, after implementing the Granger test, the expected result is one-way causality, the thesis will continue to use quantitative methods to evaluate the contribution of economic sectoral restructuring to employment in Vietnam in two aspects: the number of jobs and labor productivity;
- Fourthly, propose some solutions and policy suggestions to stimulate restructuring process in Vietnam towards creating more and more effective jobs for society. 3. Object and scope of research 3.1. Research object
The research object of the thesis is to study the relationship between economic sectoral restructuring and employment. 3.2. Research scope
In terms of space: the thesis studies this relationship in the whole territory of Vietnam. In particular, employment is analyzed in two aspects: labor productivity and number of jobs in the economy; the economic structure is divided into 3 regions and 17 sectors. In terms of time: the thesis focuses on analyzing the situation of Vietnam’s economy in the period of 1991 – 2017 and comparing it with some other countries in the period that has the same development level as Vietnam. In terms of content: the thesis focuses on analyzing the relationship between employment and economic restructuring by sectors as it is considered a “pillar” structure. It reflects the level of science and technology development, production force development and social labor division. Moreover, the economic structure by region and by composition in each country is very different. Data collection for these two types of structures is also not reflected in international statistics, so it is difficult in quantitative research as well as comparing the level of transfer between Vietnam and other countries.
4. Methodology and research methods The thesis uses the following research methods: dialectical method; abstracting science method; descriptive statistics method; comparative method and econometric method. For the econometric method, the dissertation uses three specific methods: (1) Granger causality test is used to measure the relationship between economic sectoral restructuring and employment; (2) Vector method and elasticity coefficient are used to consider the impact of economic sectoral structuring on the number of jobs in the economy; (3) Shift-share analysis method (SSA) is to used to evaluate the impact of economic sectoral structuring on social labor productivity. 5. New scientific contribution of the thesis The thesis has made new scientific contributrions, as follows: - An overview of the rationale for the relationship between economic sectoral structural transformation and employment in the economy; - Through a number of quantitative methods, the thesis assesses the contribution level of economic sectoral restructuring to employment in Vietnam in terms of both quality and quantity; - The thesis shows the positive impacts, negative impacts and cause of negative impactd of economic sectoral restructuring on employment. Since then, there are policy suggestions to promote the process of economic sectoral restructuring in Vietnam towards creating more and more effective jobs for society.
6. Theoretical and practical meaning In terms of theory, the thesis selects three mathematical methods to find out the relationship between economic sectoral restructuring and employment. This finding will contribiute a part of valuable theory to improve the analytical framework of economic sectoral restructuring and employment in Vietnam. Therefore, this will be a solid scientific baisc for further analysis of relationship between these two factors. In terms of practicality, based on reliable and up-to-date data, the thesis will analyze employment status in the process of economic sectoral restructuring in Vietnam, which may be useful for state government in designing and implementing policies related to economic sectoral restructuring and employment. 7. Structure of the dissertation In addition to foreword and conclusion, the dissertation includes three chapters: Chapter 1: Overview of research Chapter 2: Theoretical background and models to assess the impact of economic sectoral restructuring on employment; Chapter 3: Assessing the situation and analyzing the impact of economic sectoral restructuring on employment through quantitative methods; Chapter 4: Orientation and solutions to promote the economic sectoral restructuring that have a positive impact on employment in Vietnam.
CHAPTER 1 OVERVIEW OF RESEARCH
Overview of researchs in the world The consideration of the relationship between economic sectoral
restructuring and employment has been long long established in may studies around the world. They all have a common view that the more economic sectoral restructuring is developed in the modern way, the more jobs will be created. The dissertation analyzes the overview according to two contents: theoretical studies and empirical studies. There have been quite a number of classic theories studying this relationship, such as Fisher’s labor productivity law (1935); two-area theory of economists: Ricardo (1871); Lewis (1954), Jorgenson (1961), Oshima (1989); Harris - Todaro's labor migration theory (1970); Lin’s new structural economic theory (2010). In addition to theoretical studies, the relationship between economic sectoral restructuring and employment is also analyzed in practice through studies of Ark B. V. (1995), Fagerberg J. (2000), Timmer M. & Szirmai A. (2000), Nazamuddin (1996), Teal (2011)... 1.2.
Overview of researchs in Vietnam In Vietnam, studies related to economic sectoral restructuring and
employment are expressed through research topics at the state level, ministry level; independent studies of group; specialized studies of international organizations; doctoral dissertations; monographs and independent scientific articles...
CHAPTER 2 THEORETICAL BACKGROUND AND MODELS TO ASSESS THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC SECTORAL RESTRUCTURING ON EMPLOYMENT 2.1.
General theory of economic sectoral restructuring and employment
Economic sectoral structure and economic sectoral restructuring
Economic sectoral structure, interms of quantity, is determined by the rate of output (or GDP) of each part of the total output value (or GDP) of the entire economy. Economic sectoral structure, interms of quality, is the whole of componants that make of economy of each country that are inextricably linked. These parts interact with each other, represent the quantity and quality correlation in certain space and time and they are suitable for certain socio-economic conditions. The economic restructuring is the process of changing the sectoral structure from one state to another in the direction of becoming more and more perfect, suitable for the environment and development conditions. 2.1.2.
From an economic perspective, employment is concept used to indicate the appropriateness of labor and necessary conditions (capital, production materials, technology and other social factors) to use labor. 2.1.3.
restructuring and employment in the process of economic growth
Economic sectoral structural transformation creates the premise for the for the growth and improvement of production factor markets, such 8
as labor market and financial market. In contrast, perfecting those markets promotes economic growth and thus deepens the process of restructuring. However, industry restructuring is a process, not a new structure is formed at once and immediately replace the old structure, but the process of economic restructuring must be the process of accumulation of quantity, changes in quantity to a certain extent lead to qualitative changes. From the qualitative change, the new sectoral structure can affect labor – employment, increate labor productivity and boost economic growth. 2.2.
An overview of theoretical models that relate to the relationship
between economic sectoral restructuring and
Law of labor productivity increase, Fisher (1935)
Two area theory, Lewis – Ranis – Fei
Two area theory, Jorgenson (1961)
Three area theory, Oshima (1988)
Theory of structural change, Moshe Syrquin (1988)
The main factors affecting the relationship between economic sectoral restructuring and employment and building an analytical framework for the dissertation
From theoretical studies, the thesis has examined the following factors as the main reasons for the rapid shift of economic structure and become the driving force of economic growth and job creation in the period of national industrialization and modernization: (1) Institutions and policies of the state; (2) Capital and progress of science and technology; (3) Qualifications and capacity of employees; (4) Other factors: natural conditions, population structure, international integration. 9
PROPOSED ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK FOR THE THESIS THEORETICAL BACKGROUND OF ECONOMIC RESTRUCTURING AND EMPLOYMENT
Theories explain the relationship between restructuring and employment
The role of restructuring and employment
Factors affecting restructuring and employment
QUANTATIVE RESEARCH METHODS
Granger Causality Test
Vector method and Elasticity Coefficient
Lessons of experience about restructuring and employment
CURRENT SITUATION OF RESTRUCTURING AND EMPLOYMENT Shift-share Analysis method
EVALUATION OF THE RESULTS
Evaluation of the relationship between restructuring and employment
Evaluating the impact of restructuring on the number of jobs
Evaluating the impact of restructuring on labor productivity
Group of solutions for government policies
Group of solutions 10 for business
Group of solutions for jobs and labor productivity
relationship between economic sectoral restructuring and employment 2.3.1.
Granger Causality Test
Calling MLI as an economic restructuring variable and GL is a job growth variable, the causality test between two variables will be conducted based on the following panel data model: ∑
The verification process will follow the steps: Step 1
Result: Homogenous Non-Causality
Test hypothesis HNC
(test produre stops here) H0 rejected Step 2 Test Hypothesis HC
Result: Heterogeneous Non-causality of i (test produre stops here)
H0 rejected Result: Heterogeneous Causality of i
Vetor method and Elasticity Coefficient
The vector method is caculated according to the formula: ∑ √∑
[ ]) [ ]
With x[io] and x[it] are respectively the proportion of GDP of sector i two points o and t; n is the number of sectors in the economy; and φ is the angle matched by two structure vectors x[io] and x[it]. Combine with the displacement and cos φ angle, the speed of economic sectoral restructuring (denote by k, unit: %) will be calculated according to the formula:
Similar to the formula for calculating the rate of economic restructuring, calling α is the angle matched by two labor structure vectors s[i,o] and s[i,t], then the rate of labor restructuring by sector will be:
Combining the shifting rate of economic structure and labor structure by sector to assess th impact of economic restructuring on employment for workers through the following elasticity:
Shift-share analysis method
Assuming the economy is divided into i sectors (i = 1,...,n). Calling PA is social labor productivity, measured by the total output value (YA) on the total number of employees (LA), so PA = YA/LA. Similarly, labor productivity of industry i, Pi: so Pi = Yi/Li. Calling LA is the total number of employees working and L i is the number of employees working in industry, then the proportion of working employees in industry i will be Si, Si = Li/LA. We have the formula:
n Y YA i LA i 1 Li
Li * LA
n Pi * Si i 1
Differences in social labor productivity between the two period 0 and T: n
PiT Pi 0 Pi o *(SiT Sio ) ( PiT Pi o )*(SiT Sio ) ( PiT Pi o )*Sio
Calling GPA is the speed of social labor productivity growth of the year T compared to the base year (t = 0), the formula for calculating GP A: ∑
The above equation evaluates the speed of social labor productivity growth based on three divisions: The first one on the right is the “static shift effect” that measures the rate of social labor productivity growth through labor restructuring forwards industries with higher labor productivity. It uses weighting as the value of labor productivity of the industry in the first year; The second side shows “dynamic shift effect”, measuring the rate of social labor productivity growth based on changes in labor productivity and the speed of labor productivity growth; The third is “endogenous effect”, reflecting improved labor productivity in the absence of labor restructuring and the size of working employees in each sector in the economy is constant during the study period. 2.4.
Experience in implementing economic and employment restructuring in a nuber of countries and regions Dissertation analyses Japan, South Korea and Thailand to draw
Vietnam because these countries
have the same
characteristics as Vietnam, whose developmetn is more or less dependent 13
on the marine economy or they all have a starting point from agriculture. Although each region has its own strengths, Vietnam can fully draw lessons for themselves through their economic practices.
CHAPTER 3 ASSESSING THE SITUATION AND ANALYZING THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC SECTORAL RESTRUCTURING ON EMPLOYMENT IN VIETNAM 3.1.
Current situation of economic restructuring and employment in vietnam in the period 1991 - 2017
Dissertation describes the current situation of economic restructuring and employment in Vietnam in the period 1991 – 2017 in three aspects: (1) GDP structure by sector; (2) Investment capital structure by sector; (3) labor structure and labor productivity by sectors in the economy. 3.2.
employment by quantitative methods 3.2.1.
Using Granger causality test to determine the relationship between economic restructuring and employment in Vietnam
Statistical description of research data MLI Observations Medium Maximum minimum
1064 1064 Std. Dev. 2.93 2.49 1.72 Skewness 5.74 45.82 16.47 Kurtosis 66.02 0.15 -12.41 Source: Author’s calculations according to GSO data
GL 2.63 0.74 6.74
The results of the first two Granger causality test (HNC and HC) show that the hypothesis H0 is rejected at latencies 1, 2 and 3 with the 14
level of meaning 5%. At the same time, testing the heterogeeous noncausality (HENC) also supported the existence of th relationship between GL and MLI. 3.2.2.
Using vector method and elasticity to assess the impact of economic restructuring on the number of jobs in Vietnam
Application of vetor method and elasticity through the data of the General Statistics Office of Vietnam in the period of 1991 – 2017 on working employees by sectors (agriculture, industry, services) and GDP by sector at constant 2010 prices, the auther calculated the angle of sectoral restructuring in two parts: restructuring from agriculture to industry and grom agriculture to non-agriculture. On that basis, the employment elasticity coefficient is also calculated in two parts: (1) employment elasticity according to the rate of restructuring between the two sectors: agriculture – industry; (2) employment elasticity according to the rate of restructuring between the two sectors: agriculture – nonagriculture. 5 4 3 2 1 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Employment elasticity according to the speed of economic restructuring Source: Author’s calculations according to GSO data 15
Using SSA method to measure the impact of economic sectoral restructuring on growth of labor productivity in Vietnam
The contribution of restructuring to labor productivity growth is divided into 5 stages of calculation based on the Government’s 5-year plans. Changes in labor productivity in Vietnam overtime Unit :%. 1996 2000
Source: Author’s calculations according to GSO data
In order to compare the changes in the contribution of effects on the rate of labor productivity growth by sector over time periods, the thesis calculates the specific contribution of 17 sectors. The SSA method shows that internal labor productivity and the process of restructuring in the period of 1996 – 2017 all contribute significantly to the aggregate labor productivity, in which, the static effect have played an important role in the growth of labor productivity at this stage. This is evidence that the sectoral structural change took place more strongly in the period 1996 2000. In addition, the SSA method shows that some dynamic 16
development sectors will benefit from dynamic effects fo the restructuring process. Among them, manufacturing industry is the leading industry. Since 2001, this industry has started to develop and act as a “modern area” because it has higher productivity and more labor absorption. Therefore, the dynamic effect in this industry is promoted, facilitated to motivate the labor productivity growth. 3.3.
employment The analysis of the situations and results of quantitative research presented above leads to the conclusion that economic sectoral restructuring, on the one hand, has created motivation to promote more job growth; on the other hand, because the shift did not go to the right goal, it has led to many new jobs created but low quality and unsustainable jobs. The cause of negative impacts of economic restructuring on employment can be include the following factors: (1) Limitation in design of economic restructuring policy; (2) Shortcomings in the implementation of investment capital allocation policies for the process of economic sectoral restructuring in the economy; (3) Vietnamese enterprises have not focused on innovation; (4) The level of human resources is still low so it does not meet the requiremnets of modernization.
CHAPTER 4 ORIENTATION AND SOLUTIONS TO PROMOTE THE ECONOMIC SECTORAL RESTRUCTURING THAT HAVE A POSITIVE IMPACT ON EMPLOYMENT IN VIETNAM.
4.1. International and domestic context and requirements of economic sectoral restructuring to have a positive impact on employment in Vietnam The world economy is developing in new conditions and contexts with a profound and comprehensiv transformation in terms of technological level, product structure and economic institutions. Besides, the characteristics of the economy with high opening and deep intergration into the world economic system has created opportunities for Vietnam to expand its development space quickly and has been strongly supported by international resources that move increasingly freely. However, in order for the economic restructuring to be successful in promoting employment with high labor productivity, there by stimuling sustainable economic growth in the new contexts, Vietnam needs to meet the following requirements: (1) Requirements for breakthrough development in the global value chain through the system of international labor division; (2) Requirements for seizing opportunities to develop in leaps and bounds in the era of industrial revolution 4.0; (3) The requirement of economic sectoral restructuring and employment growth must always aim at sustainable development.
Orientation of economic sectoral restructuring to have a positive impact on employment in Vietnam from now until 2035 Firstly, economic sectoral transformation must be directed towards
integrationand based on integration through effectively exploiting internal resources, strengthening attraction of external resources and new creating comparative advantages to improve labor productivity and national competitiveness. Secondly, economic sectoral restructuring must be associated with the building a modern market economy institution to emprove the effeciency of allocation and use input resources. In particular, it is necessary to focus on developing the domestic private sector which has high competitiveness. Thirdly, economic sectoral restructuring should focus on developing the innovation capacity of businesses in all sectors and fields in the economy. Fourthl, the process of economic sectoral transformation should be based on high quality human resources and well meet the requirements of modern science and technology. Fifthly, economic sectoral restructuring should be associated with sustainable environmental development and resilience to climate change. Năm là, chuyển dịch cơ cấu ngành kinh tế phải gắn với phát triển bền vững về môi trường và tăng cường khả năng chống chịu với biến đổi khí hậu.
Some key solutions to promote the economic sectoral restructuring in order to have a positive impact on employment by 2035
Group of solutions on Government policies
Solutions that the government should to address, including: (1) Building a state that has constructivist capacity to develop quickly; (2) Applying market principles for economic policies; (3) Developing socioeconomic infrastructure in a perfect way; Sustainable dvelopment associated with fighting climate change. 4.3.2.
Group of solutions on enterprise innovation capacity
There are two solutions for enterprise innovation, including: (1) Considering businesses as the center of innovation; (2) Developing an intellectual property strategy. 4.3.3.
Group of solutions on employment and labor productivity
High labor prductivity and good jobs will be achieved if Vietnam focuses on implementing solutions: (1) Focusing on investing and developing human resources to meet the requirements of economic restructuring and in-depth economic growth; (3) Developing an internal restructuring strategy towards selecting products based on outstanding comparative advantages; (3) Strengthen foreign trade opportunities to deeply participate in global value chain ans stay ahead of competition with emerging economies. 4.4.
Conditions for implementing the solutions In the process of economic sectoral restructuring, Vietnam should
create cohesion and linkage between labor resources, infrastructure, institutions, information, international economic integration and business 20
invironment. More importantly, the prerequisite for Vietnam to become a modern industrialized country is to have a strong government, run by elite officials with high education and dedicated spirit, who have constructivist capacity and a strong political bravery. CONCLUSIONS Since Vietnamese economy has entered the period of “Doi Moi” so far, two issues “economic restructuring” and “employment” have always been paid attention in most of the 5-year planning periods. This shows that the government has been very interested in retionalizing the economic structure. They all have unity in social awareness about the importance of economic restructuring as well as job creation for workers to help the economy move from width-based growth to depth-based growth. Especially, Vietnam is a developing country with a large population characteristics and popularion structure is concentraded mostly in rural areas, so the proportion of agricultural labor in th total labor force is very high. This makes economic restructuring and employment more and more inevitable to transform into new ways of growth – growth based on social labor productivity, national resources and competing capability. By reviewing a number of studies in the world and in Vietnam to find research gaps, dissertation has systematized scientifically on the theoretical background of the relationship between economic sectoral restructuring and employment and proposed a research framework. Combining theoretical research and application of several quantitative methods, the thesis has evaluated the situation and analyzed the impact of 21
economic sectoral restructuring on employment in Vietnam. Analysis results show that, with Granger causality test, up to 60% of provinces have supported the impact of economic restructuring on employment. Among the provinces that do not support this relationship, there are very developed provinces such as Thu Thien Hue, Khanh Hoa, Ba Ria-Vung Tau or Binh Duong. Granger causality test results show thay these provinces represented the opposite relationship with the majority of above units, meaning employment growth has an impact on economic sectoral restructuring. After determining the existence of the relationship between economic restructuring and employment in Vietnam, dissertation continued to use vector method and elasticity to measure the impact of economic restructuring on the number of jobs across development stages. The results show that the elasticity of employment according to the speed of restructuring between agricultural sector – non-agricultural sector and elasticity of employment according to the speed of agricultural sector – industrial sector have greatly changed, but their value has still increased over time. This positive change contained a happy signal about the qualifications of rural workers, that they had good preparation of necessary skills to be able to meet employment in industrial and service sectors. Shift-share analysis is used to measure the impact of economic sectoral restructuring on labor productivity. The results show that the internal labor productivity and the process of restructuring in the period of 1996 – 2017 have made significant contributions to the growth of aggregate labor productivity in the economy, in which, static effect of the 22
restructuring process has played an important role in the growth of labor productivity at this stage. In addition, the SSA method shows that some dynamic development sectors will benefit from the dynamic effects of the restructuring process. Among them, manufacturing is the leading industry. Since 2001, the manufacturing industry has begun to develop and act as a “modern area”, with higher productivity and more labor absorption. Therefore, the dynamic effect in this area has been promoted, which has created conditions to govern the growth rate of labor productivity in the economy. The analytical results of the dissertation also show that besides the achievements that have formed strong points, the process of economic sectoral restructuring also causes negative impacts on employment, which can be attribited to: Limitation in design of economic restructuring policy; Shortcomings in the implementation of investment capital allocation policies for the process of economic sectoral restructuring in the economy; Vietnamese enterprises have not focused on innovation; The level of human resources is still low so it does not meet the requiremnets of modernization. Based on the results of analysis and evaluation mentioned above, the thesis has considered the international and domestic context to propose requirements, orientations and solutions to promote the economic sectoral restructuring in order to have positive impact on employment in Vietnam until 2035. Accordingly, the proposed solutions include: group of government policies; group of solutions on enterprise innovation capacity; groups of solutions on employment and labor productivity.